One resounding tenet of United States President Donald Trump‘s “America First” ideology is that all foreign policy should ultimately, if not solely, benefit the domestic economy. Since taking office in mid-January, his whirlwind of executive orders and pronouncements at press conferences illustrate how the White House’s new occupant views policy toward Latin America, South America, Ukraine, China, and Palestine as a means to advance US interests.

Latin and South America

It’s no surprise that immigration is a – if not the – top priority for the new administration in Washington. Throughout his campaign, Trump pointed to immigration as the cause of US job losses, crime increases, and housing shortages.

Thus, Marco Rubio, Trump’s Secretary of State and widely regarded as the country’s leading diplomat, made his first trip abroad last week to Latin America. The week-long visit included stops in the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama, and El Salvador, with the latter two countries generating the biggest headlines.

In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele offered to jail not only deported individuals deemed to have crossed US borders illegally but also American citizens. Bukele suggested, perhaps in a deal-making gesture reminiscent of his counterpart in the White House, this arrangement could happen for a fee. “No country has ever made an offer of friendship like this,” commented Rubio. At a press conference in Washington, President Trump acknowledged Bukele’s offer and said he’d jail US citizens “in a heartbeat” if legal.

In Panama, Rubio focused not only on migration – witnessing a US-funded Panamanian flight deporting Colombians arrested in the country, he remarked that “the U.S. border doesn’t begin in Texas or Mexico but further down”- but also on the Panama Canal.

The Trump administration has threatened to seize the canal, including through military force, if Panama does not do two things: prevent Chinese “influence” over the canal and lower the “exorbitant fees” charged to US ships passing through.

While Trump claimed Chinese soldiers were “lovingly, but illegally” operating the canal, his likely target was China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has been investing in infrastructure projects in Panama. On this issue, Rubio secured a commitment from Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino not to renew the Belt and Road Initiative.

Rubio also claimed to have reached an agreement on canal transit fees, a claim later refuted by Mulino. Rubio then insisted he was “not confused” and pointed out that Panama “had laws to follow,” adding that he found it “absurd that we would have to pay fees to transit a zone that we are obligated to protect in a time of conflict”.

China

Speaking of China, the country remains a key focus for Trump – and not just in Panama. While the administration’s immediate focus has been on tariffs, future policies are likely to extend into territorial disputes such as the South China Sea and, crucially, Taiwan.

On tariffs, unlike Mexico and Canada, China did not reach out to the White House to avoid a trade war. Instead, Beijing implemented limited retaliatory tariffs affecting $20 billion worth of US imports (small compared to the $450 billion the US imports from China).

This suggests that, much like in Central and South America, the Chinese government may be open to striking a deal with Trump. There are even suggestions that China may revive Phase One and Phase Two negotiations with the US, aimed at rebalancing trade. Phase One, signed in 2020 but hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic, required China to purchase $200 billion worth of US products. Phase Two was intended to address “structural reforms” concerning state involvement in private business – an issue that has resurfaced regarding the ownership of social media company TikTok.

Regarding the South China Sea and Taiwan, the Trump administration has yet to outline a clear policy. However, indications suggest continuity rather than a sharp departure from previous administrations. This was evident in Rubio’s recent “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines over their territorial claims in the South China Sea and Trump’s joint condemnation with Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba over China’s “provocative actions” in the region.

Ukraine/Russia

Russia and Ukraine are two countries that bedevilled Trump in his first administration. This includes claims of Russian collusion to get him to the White House in 2016 and later refusing lethal aid to Ukraine, which lead to impeachment proceedings against the President.

In reality, the Trump administration’s New Cold War policies against Russia encouraged the worsened tensions between Moscow and Washington, likely resulting in Russia invasion into Ukraine in 2022.

Again, like other nations, deal-making is on the mind of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy when dealing with the new White House occupant. Last fall, Zelensky announced in his Plan for Victory, which included granting the EU-US access to Ukraine’s raw minerals and natural resources like liquefied natural gas (a historic sticking point between the countries).

“The Americans helped the most, and therefore the Americans should earn the most. And they should have this priority, and they will. I would also like to talk about this with President Trump,” said Zelensky.

Trump has expressed interest in pursuing the deal in exchange for any security guarantees in the future peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia. And given the speed Washington’s new administration is moving, a ceasefire deal could happen before the end of month.

Palestine

Trump was widely believed to be worse on Gaza than the potential Harris administration. Rhetorically – in his recent flippant remarks about “permanently resettling” Palestinians, that the US should “take over” Gaza, and promising “all hell to pay” if Hamas does not release the remaining Israeli hostages – this appears so. However, these pronouncements do not stray far from the Biden’s administration plans for the population, and nothing yet has manifested in Trump’s policy, with some suggesting the widely condemned proposal, including by members of his own party, will “never work”.

​​Meanwhile, rather than swiftly negotiating an end to the war as promised during his campaign, the administration is advancing another $8 billion in arms sales to Israel – an agreement signed in the final days of the Biden administration.

What this means for Europe

What’s noticeable – and frankly incredible for anyone who remembers the first Trump administration – is that the defiant push back seen then, from public officials and private companies, has turned into acquiescence.

This is likely due to the administration’s strategy to “flood the zone” strategy and engage in Gish gallop debating style, both of which are constructed to ‘overwhelm’ opposition. This strategy was coined by one of Trump’s ideological leaders, Steve Bannon.

Yet isn’t Trump’s success, in not only winning the election but overwhelming politicians and media, an indictment of his opposition? Where is the ideological counterpoint to Trump in South and Central America, Ukraine and Russia, Palestine? Last week, self-acclaimed “peacemaker” and ender of “forever wars” Trump conducted a missile strike in Somalia against an alleged ISIL leader. There was zero debate about this act, much less the full-throated arguments against such expansion of the US footprint in Africa. Even if there was, pushback from the Democrats in Congress would ring hollow when there was no questioning of Biden’s returning of the US military to Somalia. 

In Europe and beyond, progressives need to organize and present new ideas not just to confront the Trump administration – but to counter an increasingly dominant and politically ascendant right-wing worldview.

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